Asia-pacific air cargo grows on ecommerce shake-up

Air cargo markets in Asia Pacific are undergoing a swift reshuffle, as changes to US import rules for de minimis shipments disrupt established trade lanes from China and tilt demand towards neighbouring markets.

While the headline story is about the rise and redirection of eCommerce volumes, the ripple effects cut much deeper. With eCommerce now making up around one-fifth of all global air cargo, shifts in online retail demand directly affect freighter utilisation, pricing, and the availability of space for all cargo types.

US rules hit China volumes hard

The end of the de minimis exemption for China-US imports, introduced in May 2025, dealt an immediate blow to what had been the fastest-growing segment of the transpacific market. Volumes plunged 17% almost overnight, while lane capacity shrank by nearly a third as flights that once leaned heavily on eCommerce struggled to remain viable.

Asia–Europe lanes face steeper rate erosion

Asia–Europe carriers are facing even sharper falls despite steady demand and ongoing congestion at European ports. Average spot prices to North Europe have dropped by around half since January, with significant declines recorded over the past two months. Although the downward trajectory persists, the rate of transpacific decline has moderated compared with earlier in the summer.

Although exporters briefly pushed extra flow through ahead of the changes, the long-term result has been trade diversion. Low-value fashion and consumer goods shippers, whose model depended on duty-free access, saw their economics upended.

Demand quickly began to shift towards other Asia Pacific origins, with freight lanes from Southeast Asia and emerging regional hubs to both the US and Europe picking up speed.

However, despite the regulatory headwinds China remains the single largest source of global eCommerce airfreight. Volumes out of the mainland and Hong Kong reached 4.4 million tonnes in 2024, nearly double the figure from just two years earlier.

Southern hubs such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Xiamen have expanded dramatically, while western centres including Chengdu and Zhengzhou recorded growth of almost one-third in a single year.

Yet the reliance on low-value shipments leaves the market exposed. More than half of China-US air trade in 2024 consisted of this category, placing traditional exporters alongside platform sellers in direct competition for limited freighter space whenever rules tighten.

An industry-wide capacity issue

What was once a niche retail segment has become a decisive factor across the air logistics chain. By some estimates, half of all transpacific airfreight now links directly to eCommerce. That surge has squeezed general cargo out of prime routes, distorted yield management, and tied operators’ fortunes to regulatory swings outside their control.

Every fluctuation in consumer buying patterns or customs treatment now reverberates through the system: a cancelled flight for lack of parcel demand often means less space for machinery, perishables, or automotive parts as well.

On a global scale, eCommerce air cargo already exceeds 12 million tonnes, representing roughly 20% of the market. Industry forecasts expect it to double again within the decade, creating unprecedented opportunities but also major strains on customs processes, infrastructure, and sustainability targets.

Logicall operates a network of offices across China, Hong Kong, and the wider Asia Pacific region, utilising advanced digital platforms for real-time route optimisation and seamless end-to-end supply chain management.

With deep local expertise, the team enables clients to quickly adjust sourcing strategies to reduce risk and tap into high-growth markets in Southeast Asia and India.

By combining regional knowledge, smart digital innovation, and extensive global connectivity, Logicall helps shippers stay agile, optimise costs, and capitalise on the expanding air freight opportunities across Asia Pacific.