Beyond 2025: outlook for air cargo

The latest figures from IATA show global air cargo tonnages up by 4% year-on-year for Q3 2025, even as spot prices edge down, signifying a market that’s recalibrating after the turbulence of 2024.

Air freight volumes (CTKs) grew by 5% in July and 4% in August. Analysts forecast steady demand growth of around 3–4% into 2026, describing the recent cooling as stabilisation rather than a downturn.

Cross-border eCommerce is driving high-frequency, late cut-off movements and while trade changes, such as US tariff hikes and new import rules have blunted some flows out of China and Hong Kong to the US, Europe is benefiting instead.

European airports are seeing growth in tech, spare parts, and small package volumes, carving out new corridors and boosting their global cargo status.

reset pricing to balance demand with reduced availability.

Major winners of this growth include:

Liege: Cargo volumes up over 13% year to date, with July/August totals rising 14–29%.
East Midlands: Handling 375,000 tonnes last year, the airport is riding a wave of surging express and export activity.
Leipzig/Halle: Europe’s overnight eCommerce hub, managing 2,000 tonnes each night for pan-European delivery.
Cologne/Bonn: Now handling 850,000 tonnes annually and recently expanding India–Europe services.

Within the UK, investment continues to modernise the sector:

Gatwick’s second runway has been approved, targeting operations by 2029. Given that nearly two-thirds of UK air freight travels as passenger belly cargo, this could see volumes double.

East Midlands is reinforcing its all-cargo positioning, supporting export and freeport growth.
Heathrow, cemented as the UK’s most valuable port by trade value, is gearing up for even greater cargo flows with its planned third runway.

Capacity: the critical battleground

Despite these advances, airfreight capacity remains tight. As eCommerce volumes push ever higher, the world’s major aircraft manufacturers simply can’t deliver new freighters quickly enough, creating fierce competition for available lift. For example, on Asia–Europe routes, yields heading west have soared, up to 2.6 times those on the return leg in early 2025.

Transpacific flows show similar imbalances, forcing airlines to adapt network designs and fleet mixes. The sector is now defined by demand outgrowing supply, especially on key eCommerce lanes.

Looking ahead

The air cargo sector is entering a new era, defined by softer rates, resilient volumes, and eCommerce as the main growth driver. With European and UK hubs thriving and infrastructure upgrades on the horizon, the medium-term outlook is positive. However, volatility remains, and shippers that stay agile will be best placed to manage shifting rates, capacity constraints, and new trade patterns.

At Logicall, we’re committed to giving you the visibility, flexibility, and trusted partnerships needed to stay ahead, no matter where the market lands next.