Capacity discipline and disruption shape ocean freight conditions
Ocean freight markets are entering a period of pronounced capacity adjustment as carriers respond to seasonal demand weakness, operational disruption and a structurally expanding fleet.
The immediate catalyst is Chinese New Year, which began on 17 February and has triggered a sharp rise in blanked sailings across the major east–west trades. The two-week holiday, which effectively halts much of China’s manufacturing and logistics activity, has led carriers to withdraw significant capacity in anticipation of a contraction in volumes.
Across the transpacific, Asia–Europe and transatlantic trades, 136 sailings have been cancelled for February, a 122% increase on January. Most blanked departures are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound, which accounts for around 63% of cancellations over the five-week period from mid-February to late March. Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services represent 27%, while the transatlantic westbound accounts for 11%. In total, 112 blank sailings have been announced out of approximately 704 scheduled departures during this window, meaning roughly 16% of planned sailings have been removed, while 84% remain operational.
March is currently showing only 53 blank sailings, pointing to a potential 20% effective capacity increase month-on-month as services resume. However, this rebound in available space adds uncertainty to the sustainability of any rate recovery, particularly as demand indicators soften. Transpacific eastbound vessel utilisation had already fallen below 85% before the weak first quarter began, while December volumes through Los Angeles and Long Beach declined 8% and 5% respectively.
Weather disruption and surcharges
Severe winter weather across Europe has disrupted terminal operations and sailings, prompting several carriers to introduce emergency surcharges. CMA CGM has implemented a $100 per container operational recovery surcharge on cargo from North Europe to India from 23 February. These measures come against a backdrop of weakened eastbound North Europe–India rates, highlighting the tension between falling spot prices and rising operational costs.
Maersk has issued weather advisories covering Algeciras and Tangier and updated contingency surcharges for Middle East and Indian Subcontinent trades to Europe. Hapag-Lloyd has also warned customers of potential cost pass-through linked to severe weather conditions in the Bay of Biscay.
Reliability still differentiates carrier performance
Service performance remains mixed. Global schedule reliability declined to 63% in December, with average delays for late arrivals increasing to just over five days. Maersk recorded reliability of 77% and Hapag-Lloyd 75%, while several carriers remained below 60%. Alliance performance continues to diverge, reinforcing the importance of carrier selection rather than simply route selection.
Taken together, the market reflects a complex interplay between seasonal blankings, operational disruption and uneven reliability. Short-term capacity discipline may support rates intermittently, but the underlying supply trajectory suggests execution, routing choices and forward planning will matter more than headline freight rates.
In conditions where capacity, schedules and costs fluctuate constantly, planning based on static routing assumptions creates risk. Logicall works with shippers to actively manage carrier selection, routing and booking timing so supply chains remain predictable even when the market is not.
If you would like to review how current ocean conditions may affect your shipments in the coming months, speak to the Logicall team.