Carriers face capacity dilemma as golden week nears

With China’s annual Golden Week holiday approaching, container shipping lines are once again grappling with a familiar question: how much vessel capacity should be withdrawn to support freight rates.

Traditionally, the week-long factory shutdown in October triggers a spike in demand, followed by a sharp, predictable dip in exports.

Carriers have long responded by blanking sailings and cancelling voyages to withhold
supply from the market.

But what makes 2025 different is the scale of supply still scheduled to sail. Despite expectations of softer export demand, most east–west trades remain heavily provisioned and unless major new cancellations are announced, carriers appear prepared to keep more vessels on the water this year than in nearly any previous Golden Week period.

Capacity cuts fall far short of norms

Analysis of sailing schedules by Sea Intelligence reveals that for the Asia–North Europe trade, weekly deployment during Golden Week and the three weeks following is not only up by more than 20% compared to 2024, it also exceeds the pre-pandemic average by over a quarter. Yet actual capacity withdrawals stand at a mere 2.7%, a striking deviation from the 14–15% reductions once considered standard practice during this period.

The same trend is visible on services linking Asia to North America. On the east coast route, available slots for this season are up nearly one-fifth year-on-year. By Sea Intelligence estimates, avoiding oversupply would require at least seven additional blank sailings that, so far, have not been announced. On Asia–North Europe lanes, ten further cancellations would be necessary just to match the restraint shown in previous years.

The strategic significance of blank sailings

For carriers, blank sailings represent more than a seasonal tradition, they are an essential tool for controlling capacity. Shipping markets are defined by demand swings that lines cannot control, leaving capacity management as their primary method of stabilising freight rates.

Even modestly cutting supply below anticipated demand can prevent sudden rate erosion and, in some cases, drive double-digit percentage gains. Unlike mothballing entire services or sidelining their new ultra-large vessels (which would not be well-received by their stakeholders), blankings provide agility. Carriers can fine-tune schedules in response to weekly booking signals and reinstate sailings quickly if volumes rebound.

What to Expect in the Weeks Ahead

History suggests the industry may not have revealed all of its cards. Carriers often wait to see how booking volumes evolve in the run-up to Golden Week before confirming large-scale cancellations. Last-minute blankings, therefore, remain highly likely.

Still, the messaging so far is clear: the scale of currently scheduled capacity during this year’s holiday window is far above historical norms. Should carriers resist deeper cuts, the market will enter uncharted waters, with high availability colliding directly with reduced demand.

For shippers, the outcome will determine whether spot rate relief is on the horizon or whether the lines once again succeed in leveraging supply discipline to hold freight costs aloft. For carriers, 2025’s Golden Week is shaping up as a test case in how far they are prepared to let utilisation slip before reimposing their traditional control.

The global sea freight market is undergoing continuous shifts in both demand and capacity, making adaptability more important than ever. With major changes shaping the industry, now is the perfect time to reassess your ocean freight strategy to safeguard flexibility and supply chain continuity.

As Golden Week approaches—traditionally a period marked by booking surges and tightened capacity—Logicall is here to help you stay ahead. Our tailored solutions are designed to keep your supply chain resilient, cost-effective, and competitive, even during the busiest and most challenging times of the year.

Get in touch with our team today to secure space, manage costs effectively, and ensure your cargo keeps moving smoothly no matter the market conditions.