Chinese New Year 2026: Planning and risk management
As freight markets move into 2026, Chinese New Year (CNY) is shaping up to be a critical stress test for already sensitive supply chains.
While ocean carriers have so far held rates relatively stable through aggressive capacity management, this stability remains fragile. The seasonal shock of factory shutdowns across China and parts of Southeast Asia risks exposing weaknesses in schedules, space availability and pricing. CNY remains one of the most disruptive periods in the global shipping calendar. For shippers reliant on predictable sailings and just-in-time inventory, the six to eight weeks around CNY will again be a period of heightened disruption risk rather than a short, contained pause.
Why CNY still disrupts global supply chains
Factory slowdowns and closures reduce export volumes, while carriers respond by blanking sailings to protect utilisation. In a market already dependent on tight capacity control, this seasonal intervention can amplify volatility rather than smooth it.
Typical impacts include:
• Short-notice blank sailings
• Rolled or delayed cargo either side of the holiday
• Sudden rate movements as services resume
• Congestion at origin and destination ports as volumes rebound
Warehousing and logistics move to the centre of performance
Factory slowdowns and closures reduce export volumes, while carriers respond by blanking sailings to protect utilisation. In a market already dependent on tight capacity control, this seasonal intervention can amplify volatility rather than smooth it.
Typical impacts include:
• Short-notice blank sailings
• Rolled or delayed cargo either side of the holiday
• Sudden rate movements as services resume
• Congestion at origin and destination ports as volumes rebound
Key timing to plan around
• Late January–early February: Production slows 2–3 weeks before CNY. Bookings are pulled forward, sailings fill early and rollover risk increases.
• Mid-February–early March: Factories and logistics operations close or run at reduced capacity for 2–4 weeks. Backlogs build and carriers cut sailings.
• Mid-March onwards: Gradual normalisation, often with residual congestion as networks clear accumulated cargo.
For many importers, this disruption window overlaps with critical selling periods such as Valentine’s Day, Easter and spring collections.
Proactive planning remains the most effective way to reduce exposure during CNY. Logicall recommends that shippers:
Lock in space early
Pre-CNY sailings fill quickly, especially as blank sailings reduce available departures. Securing space two to three weeks earlier than normal lowers the risk of last-minute rollovers.
1. Designing supply chains that bend, not break
Taken together, the lessons of 2025 point to a clear direction for 2026. Supply chains that perform best are those designed for execution, resilience and control, that means:
2. Build schedule flexibility
Avoid reliance on a single sailing or carrier. Alternative routings and wider departure windows improve resilience when sailings are blanked at short notice.
3. Review inventory buffers
Post-holiday restarts often bring congestion as backlogged cargo moves simultaneously. Modest increases in safety stock can offset unpredictable transit times in Q1.
4. Balance contract and spot exposure
A blended approach protects access to guaranteed space while retaining flexibility if post-CNY markets soften unevenly.
5. Strengthen end-to-end communication
Early coordination between suppliers, exporters, importers and forwarders helps identify blank-sailing risk before cargo reaches the port.
Navigating CNY disruption in an unsettled freight market requires real-time insight, flexible routing and proactive decision-making. Logicall works closely with shippers to secure capacity, manage peak-season risk and adapt shipping strategies as market conditions evolve.