Fragile sea freight markets edge toward 2026 and CNY
Carriers are working hard to stabilise pricing through capacity management, while shippers face a market that is neither collapsing nor convincingly recovering.
Demand signals remain uneven across east–west trades. Asia–Europe lanes have shown short-term resilience, supported by seasonal volumes and disciplined capacity control, while the Transpacific continues to soften as US import demand loses momentum.
For European importers, the timing of Chinese New Year 2026 adds another layer of complexity. With factories in China and parts of East Asia expected to shut down from late January, many shippers are advancing cargo into December and early January, temporarily supporting Asia–Europe volumes but increasing the risk of disruption, congestion and uneven space availability around the holiday period.
How CNY 2026 will hit European supply chains
Chinese New Year 2026 falls in mid-February, later than in recent years, extending the pre-holiday shipping window but also lengthening the period of uncertainty. European supply chains are likely to feel the impact in three distinct phases from late January to end March.
Ahead of the holiday, front-loaded bookings are already tightening space on key Asia–Europe services as shippers pull cargo forward to avoid factory shutdowns. This is supporting short-term rate firmness but creating pressure points around equipment availability and cut-off dates.
During the holiday itself, reduced production and lower export volumes will coincide with carrier blank sailings, increasing the risk of delayed sailings and rolled cargo for any late-moving shipments.
Post-CNY, Europe should expect a slower and less predictable recovery than in previous years. Weaker global demand and persistent overcapacity suggest any rebound will be uneven, with carriers likely to reintroduce capacity cautiously rather than trigger a sharp post-holiday surge.
Blank sailings: discipline holds rates, but capacity still creeps back
Carriers closed mid-December with a week of clear contrasts. Aggressive blank sailings helped steady Asia–Europe rates, while the Transpacific weakened as operators responded to subdued demand.
Over the five-week period from week 51-2025 to week 03-2026, carriers have cancelled 64 of 709 planned sailings, equating to around 9% of departures. The majority of these cancellations are concentrated on the Transpacific eastbound (50%), followed by the Transatlantic westbound (31%)and Asia–Europe/Mediterranean (19%). Despite this, 91% of scheduled sailings are still expected to operate as planned, underlining that networks remain largely intact.
December alone will see 67 cancelled sailings, which paradoxically adds around 4% more available capacity month on month as withdrawn services are offset by larger vessels and network adjustments. Early January schedules already include 47 blank sailings, pointing to a further 3% increase in capacity, raising questions over how sustainable current rate support will be into Q1.
Rate movements reflect this mixed picture. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 2% week on week, driven by a 10% increase on Asia–Europe/Mediterranean, steady Transatlantic pricing, and a 6% decline on the Transpacific.
While carriers have demonstrated a willingness to pull capacity when required, the underlying market remains oversupplied. Any rate support achieved through blank sailings appears tactical rather than structural, particularly on lanes exposed to weaker consumer demand.
For shippers, this means volatility has not disappeared but simply become more localised. Spot rates may hold or lift briefly on certain trades, but contract negotiations and space commitments into early 2026 will be reflective of carrier behaviour and sailing reliability.
As sea freight moves into 2026, the risk is less about sudden disruption and more about false confidence, as apparent stability can quickly unravel, which is why we advise shippers to:
• Monitor lane-specific capacity trends closely
• Avoid assuming blanket rate stability across all trades
• Build flexibility into Q1 shipping plans
• Engage with us early on booking and space requirements
In a market balanced on fine margins, informed decision-making will be key to protecting service levels and freight budgets in the months ahead.