Global freight market report – April

Global freight markets remain heavily influenced by disruption linked to the Middle East crisis, with continued instability across the Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf region sustaining elevated transport costs, longer transit times and operational uncertainty.

Although some shipping lines and airlines have begun cautiously restoring selected routings, most carriers continue to operate contingency networks shaped by fuel availability, security concerns and capacity management strategies.

Fuel remains the defining pressure point across all major transport modes. Bunker and jet fuel pricing remain significantly above historical norms, driving emergency surcharges and increasing operating costs for carriers and logistics providers. At the same time, congestion, equipment imbalances and rerouting are reducing effective capacity across both ocean and air freight networks.

Economic conditions remain mixed. Manufacturing activity across parts of Europe has improved modestly, supporting freight demand on key industrial corridors, while e-commerce and technology investment continue sustaining air and contract logistics activity. However, inflationary pressure, cautious consumer sentiment and geopolitical risk continue to weigh on wider market confidence and long-term planning.

Ocean Freight

Ocean freight markets remain volatile as carriers balance stronger Asia export demand against ongoing operational disruption linked to the Middle East crisis, Red Sea instability and fuel-related cost pressure. Space conditions tightened through late April and early May ahead of China’s Labour Day holidays, while blank sailings and slower equipment rotation continued reducing effective capacity across key east–west trades.

Although a few carriers have been testing Suez routings, wider market confidence will be fragile through the year and most operators continue to prioritise Cape of Good Hope diversions. Asia–Europe remains the most pressured trade lane, with carriers actively managing capacity through blank sailings while congestion and equipment shortages continue affecting schedule reliability.

Fuel remains central to market dynamics. Emergency bunker surcharges are now widespread as carriers attempt to offset sharply higher operating costs following the rise in oil and marine fuel pricing. Transpacific conditions are comparatively more stable, although carriers continue introducing peak season and fuel surcharges to restore margins as demand patterns remain uneven.

Summary:

• Asia–Europe demand increased 22% year-to-date
• 19% of Asia–Europe capacity blanked during week 19
• Emergency bunker surcharges reached USD 265 per TEU
• Asia–Europe schedule reliability fell to 54%

Air Freight

Air freight markets remain operationally fragile despite signs that the immediate capacity shock following the Middle East conflict is beginning to stabilise. Gulf airspace disruption, elevated jet fuel costs and uneven capacity recovery continue sustaining high operating costs and rate pressure across major trade lanes.

Global demand softened slightly after strong growth earlier in the year, although structural drivers including e-commerce, AI infrastructure shipments and ocean-to-air conversions continue supporting overall market resilience. China–US demand remains particularly strong, while seasonal cargo movements, including flower exports into North America, are helping sustain utilisation across parts of the Americas.

Capacity recovery remains uneven. Gulf carriers continue operating reduced schedules, while alternative routings through Turkey and Central Asia are reshaping cargo flows and extending lead times on several Asia–Europe corridors. Although pricing momentum has started to ease, rates remain significantly above historical norms because of constrained capacity, rerouting and fuel surcharge pressure.

The market is expected to recover gradually over the coming months, although conditions remain highly sensitive to further geopolitical escalation, fuel disruption and inflation-driven weakening in consumer demand.

Summary:

• Global air cargo tonnage declined 3% since March
• Gulf capacity remains 36% below pre-conflict levels
• Global spot rates remain around 30% higher year-on-year
• China–US demand continues to show resilience

Road Freight

European road freight markets are increasingly being shaped by fuel and operating costs rather than underlying demand growth. Rising diesel prices following the disruption to Middle East energy flows have intensified pricing pressure across both domestic and international road transport markets, while contract rates continue strengthening across much of Europe.

Manufacturing conditions have improved modestly across several European economies, supporting demand on key industrial and cross-border corridors. Germany-linked lanes remain stronger as industrial output recovers, while sectors linked to technology, pharmaceuticals and data centre infrastructure continue generating additional transport demand.

Although softer consumer confidence may eventually moderate transport demand later in the year, current market conditions suggest that most near-term pricing pressure will remain cost-driven, with carriers continuing to pass fuel and operating cost increases directly into rates.

Summary:

• EU diesel prices increased 26% during the last quarter
• Contract road freight rates rose 9% year-on-year
• Around 12% of EU driver positions remain unfilled
• Further pricing increases expected through Q2 2026

Contract Logistics

The impact of Middle East and Red Sea disruption is reinforcing the shift towards higher inventory holdings, regionalised distribution strategies and more flexible network design. Businesses are increasingly seeking integrated solutions combining warehousing, transport, customs management and digital visibility to improve resilience and reduce operational risk.

Demand remains strongest for high-quality facilities, value-added services and specialist sectors including healthcare, cold chain and technology logistics. At the same time, labour, energy and compliance costs remain elevated across European logistics markets, although warehouse rental growth is beginning to moderate as supply and demand conditions rebalance.

Providers capable of delivering integrated, technology-enabled solutions remain best positioned to benefit from long-term structural demand trends as businesses continue redesigning supply chains around resilience, visibility and operational flexibility

Summary:

• Transport accounts for approximately 60% of market revenue
• Rental growth continues but is easing across some regions
• Demand for integrated logistics solutions remains strong
• Cold chain and healthcare logistics continue expanding

In a market defined by disruption, rising costs and shifting capacity, proactive planning is essential to maintain control and protect performance.

Logicall combines real-time data, market intelligence and hands-on expertise to help you optimise cost, secure capacity and build resilience across every stage of your supply chain.

Speak to Logicall today to access tailored insights, scenario planning and freight strategies designed to keep your business competitive now and into the future.