Global freight market report – January
Economic indicators across the UK and Europe point to modest growth, easing inflationary pressure and stabilising consumer demand. Manufacturing activity has improved from 2024–25 lows, while retail inventories are better aligned with demand, reducing the sharp swings that previously defined freight markets.
Across transport modes, effective capacity is still influenced by disruption, regulatory pressure and disciplined carrier behaviour. Reliability, service consistency and execution risk continue to weigh more heavily on supply-chain outcomes than headline rate movements, particularly for time-sensitive or cross-border flows.
For shippers, this creates a more complex operating environment. Cost pressures are no longer accelerating at the pace seen in recent years, but volatility has not disappeared. Instead, 2026 is shaping up as a year where informed planning, network design and supplier alignment will be critical.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight markets enter early 2026 supported by pre-Chinese New Year demand and sustained capacity discipline, particularly on Asia–Europe trade lanes. While global container fleet growth continues, effective capacity remains constrained by longer transit times, port congestion and ongoing Red Sea diversions, which continue to absorb a meaningful share of available tonnage.
Asia–Europe demand has remained resilient, driven by front-loaded shipments and extended supply-chain lead times. In contrast, transpacific volumes are more uneven following earlier inventory-driven surges and subsequent correction. Carriers have responded by actively managing capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments to protect utilisation and pricing.
Spot rates strengthened into January as carriers implemented general rate increases ahead of Chinese New Year. However, pricing remains sensitive to short-term demand shifts and operational disruption rather than structural supply shortages. Post-holiday, rates are expected to ease into the spring, though volatility will persist where network disruption limits effective capacity.
For shippers, ocean freight in 2026 remains an execution-led market, where route planning, carrier selection and schedule reliability are as critical as freight rates.
Key points
• Effective capacity remains constrained despite fleet growth
• Asia–Europe demand stronger than transpacific
• Rates supported by carrier discipline, not demand surge
• Reliability remains a key operational challenge
Air Freight
Improved manufacturing output across Europe and Asia has supported steady cargo flows through the new year, while easing inflation and interest rates have helped stabilise underlying demand for time-critical shipments.
However, peak-season momentum faded quickly into January, with volumes softening as expected after the holiday period. Capacity adjustments followed, preventing further rate escalation and reinforcing a more balanced supply-demand environment. The rapid post-peak correction highlights a shift away from demand-led volatility toward a more capacity-managed market.
E-commerce growth, once a key driver of air cargo demand, has moderated, reducing pressure on freighter and belly-hold capacity. At the same time, the continued recovery of passenger networks has expanded available belly capacity on key routes, particularly between Asia and Europe.
Rates have stabilised below prior-year levels, reflecting sufficient capacity rather than demand weakness. For shippers, air freight remains a strategic tool for managing supply-chain risk, product launches and service recovery, but decision-making in 2026 is increasingly focused on reliability, routing and total landed cost rather than speed alone.
Key points
• Demand stabilising after strong late-2025 finish
• Post-peak softening confirmed balanced market
• Capacity availability improving via bellyhold recovery
• Rates stable, not inflationary
Road Freight
Capacity remains constrained across key corridors, particularly for cross-border and specialist movements, while cautious fleet expansion continues to limit oversupply. As a result, pricing has remained firm rather than easing materially.
Fuel costs have moderated, helping to contain operating expenses and preventing sharper rate inflation. However, broader cost pressures linked to labour availability, compliance and equipment remain embedded in carrier pricing structures. Demand conditions are steady rather than expansionary, reinforcing the importance of contracted volumes and predictable flows.
Operational complexity continues to shape performance. Driver availability, regulatory requirements and border processes remain friction points, particularly on UK–EU movements. While disruption has eased compared with recent years, network resilience varies significantly by lane and geography.
For shippers, road freight in 2026 is less about chasing marginal rate reductions and more about securing dependable capacity, protecting service levels and building flexibility into transport plans. Stability exists, but it is fragile and execution remains critical.
Key points
• Capacity remains tight across core corridors
• Fuel relief offset by labour and compliance costs
• Pricing stable rather than falling
• Reliability varies significantly by lane
Contract Logistics
Contract logistics markets continue to adjust following the rapid expansion and subsequent correction of recent years. Demand for warehousing and value-added services has stabilised, with customers increasingly focused on optimisation rather than expansion. This shift reflects better inventory alignment and more disciplined stock management across retail and manufacturing sectors.
Labour availability and energy costs continue to influence operating economics, reinforcing the need for efficient site design and scalable solutions.
Customers are increasingly seeking flexibility in contract structures, favouring solutions that can adapt to volume variability without long-term cost lock-in. For shippers, contract logistics decisions in 2026 are less about footprint growth and more about extracting value through visibility, responsiveness and cost control.
- Demand stabilising after expansion cycle
- Prime locations outperform secondary space
- Flexibility increasingly valued over scale
- Technology and efficiency key differentiators
Warehousing
Warehousing markets across the UK and Europe are transitioning from expansion to consolidation. Vacancy rates have risen modestly as demand normalises, but availability remains constrained in prime logistics hubs where modern, compliant space is limited.
Rental growth has slowed compared with recent peaks, though rates remain elevated due to development costs, planning constraints and sustainability requirements. Energy efficiency, automation readiness and ESG compliance are increasingly influencing tenant decisions and landlord investment strategies.
For supply chains, warehousing is no longer a passive storage function but a critical performance lever. Decisions taken in 2026 will increasingly reflect service resilience, proximity to markets and the ability to adapt quickly to changing demand patterns.
Key points
- Market shifting from growth to consolidation
- Prime space remains constrained
- Rental growth slowing but not reversing
- Flexibility and efficiency driving demand
Logicall’s real-time data tools and dedicated expertise empower your team to optimise cost, capacity and resilience across ocean, air, road, warehousing and logistics services.
Connect with Logicall today to unlock bespoke insights, actionable scenario planning and freight strategies that drive competitive advantage in 2026 and beyond.