Global freight market report – June 2026

Businesses across the UK and EU continue to operate in an environment where regional conditions, geopolitical events and shifting trade patterns are shaping supply chain performance.

Economic indicators are providing cautious optimism. The International Monetary Fund has upgraded UK and EU growth forecasts to 1%, with inflation in both regions remaining stable at 2.8%. UK PMI measures remain positive, with manufacturing continuing to expand despite easing from May's recent peak. These trends are supporting freight demand, although growth remains uneven across global markets.

Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have, however, highlighted how quickly market conditions can change. Higher oil prices (already past $80/bl) are expected to increase fuel costs across all transport modes, placing renewed upward pressure on ocean bunker charges, aviation fuel costs and road freight pricing.

In this environment, those organisations that combine flexible logistics strategies, diversified sourcing, strong supply chain visibility and proactive planning will be best placed to control costs, maintain service levels and respond quickly to changing market conditions.

Ocean freight

Containerised sea freight markets remain firm entering the third quarter as resilient demand, recovering capacity and renewed geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape global supply chains.

Schedule reliability is steadily improving, but higher fuel costs and regional disruption are creating increasingly divergent conditions across individual trade lanes, making route-specific planning more important than ever.

Peak season demand continues to support high vessel utilisation across the major east-west trades, although carriers are gradually restoring capacity and reducing blank sailings. Drewry forecasts 94% of scheduled sailings will operate between weeks 29 and 33, highlighting continued improvements in network reliability despite ongoing congestion at selected ports.

However, the market's focus has shifted from vessel availability to operating costs after renewed tensions between the United States and Iran pushed Brent crude prices above $80/bl, driving higher bunker prices across all major refuelling hubs and increasing the likelihood of further emergency bunker surcharges.

Regional markets continue to perform very differently. Asia-Europe remains the strongest container corridor, with the Drewry World Container Index rising 9% week-on-week and standing 61% higher than a year ago, its highest level since September 2024. Carriers are maintaining pricing discipline through FAK increases, peak season surcharges and fuel recovery mechanisms rather than widespread blank sailings.

On the Transpacific, eeSea forecasts capacity growth of 7.5% during July and 6.5% in August, which should gradually ease pressure on US West Coast services. In contrast, Middle East services remain heavily overbooked, while congestion at India's Nhava Sheva and Mundra ports continues to disrupt regional schedules as cargo is diverted around ongoing geopolitical instability.

Summary:

• 94% of east-west sailings to operate as scheduled between weeks 29 and 33.
• The Drewry World Container Index is 61% higher year-on-year.
• Brent crude rose $80/bl, increasing bunker costs and fuel surcharges.
• Transpacific capacity will increase 7.5% in July and 6.5% in August.

Air freight

Air freight rates remain elevated by historical standards, supported by resilient demand, longer operating routings and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. While overall market conditions have stabilised, effective capacity remains tighter than headline figures suggest.

Global demand continues to outperform expectations. According to WorldACD, worldwide air cargo tonnage increased 9% year-on-year in June, with Asia Pacific exports rising 10%, reinforcing the region's role as the primary engine of global air cargo growth.

Capacity has also improved, with global cargo lift increasing by 3%, driven by a 7% expansion in freighter capacity. However, passenger belly-hold capacity remains 2% below last year's level, limiting available space on many international routes and helping sustain yields.

Transpacific markets remain the standout performers, with Hong Kong–North America rates increasing 4.6% and Shanghai–North America 3.6% during June. Although many Middle Eastern services have resumed, longer routings between Europe and Asia remain necessary following EASA's extension of its guidance to avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese airspace until the end of August. These diversions reduce aircraft utilisation, increase operating costs and constrain effective capacity.

Pricing has stabilised, but remains well above pre-disruption levels. Global spot rates are still around 43% higher than a year ago, while the Baltic Air Freight Index increased a further 0.5% during June. With higher oil prices expected to increase jet fuel costs and fuel surcharges, air freight rates are likely to remain firm throughout the third quarter despite the continued recovery in capacity.

Summary:

•  Global air cargo volumes increased 9% year-on-year.
• Freighter capacity up 7%, passenger belly capacity -2% YoY.
• Spot rates remain around 43% higher YoY.
• Hong Kong and Shanghai to North America continue to outperform.

Road freight

Road freight markets have continued to strengthen during early summer as improving manufacturing activity and recovering cross-border trade support higher transport volumes across the UK and Europe.

Capacity has largely normalised following the seasonal disruption experienced in May, although rising fuel costs, labour shortages and environmental regulation continue to influence pricing and operational planning.

Market conditions improved during June, with the TEG Road Transport Price Index rising 6.4% year-on-year. Growth has been driven by stronger demand across both freight and parcel markets, with haulage demand increasing 7.8% and courier volumes up 12.8%, reflecting improving retail activity and business confidence. At the same time, carrier availability recovered by 16.5%, restoring service reliability across domestic and international networks. While increased fleet availability has improved flexibility, operators continue to manage elevated operating costs, with diesel prices still 27% higher than a year ago, despite easing during June.

Cross-border transport continues to outperform domestic markets as European manufacturing expands and businesses diversify sourcing strategies through near-shoring and regional distribution networks. UK-EU freight flows remain stable, while investment in lower-emission vehicles, expanding carbon-based tolling schemes and continued digitalisation are reshaping the operating environment.

Although capacity has improved, the industry continues to face structural challenges, including driver shortages and rising compliance costs, limiting downward pressure on transport rates.

Looking ahead, pricing is expected to remain relatively firm. The TEG Road Transport Price Index has now recorded four consecutive monthly increases, while renewed tensions in the Middle East have increased the risk of higher diesel costs. Combined with ongoing investment in cleaner fleets, regulatory compliance and labour costs, these factors are expected to keep road freight rates above historical averages throughout the third quarter.

Summary:

•  TEG Index increased 6.4% YoY, with four consecutive months of growth.
• Haulage demand rose 7.8% and courier volumes increased 12.8% during June.
• Carrier availability improved 16.5%, restoring capacity across networks.
• Diesel prices remain 27% above last year, with further rises anticipated.

Contract Logistics

Contract Logistics continues to evolve from a storage and distribution function into a strategic component of modern supply chains. As businesses seek greater resilience, faster fulfilment and improved inventory visibility, demand for high-quality logistics solutions remains robust.

Investment in automation, sustainability and digital technologies is reshaping the sector, while flexible operations models are helping organisations respond more effectively to changing market conditions.

Third-party logistics providers accounted for 38% of new occupier demand, highlighting the growing preference for outsourced, scalable fulfilment solutions that allow businesses to adapt quickly to fluctuating demand without significant capital investment. Although rental growth has moderated to around 3% year-on-year, demand remains strongest for modern Grade A facilities offering automation, energy efficiency and excellent transport connectivity.

Technology continues to transform logistics and warehouse operations. Artificial intelligence, robotics supply chain visibility and advanced warehouse management systems are improving productivity, increasing inventory accuracy and helping optimise product flows. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty, near-shoring strategies and changing sourcing patterns are encouraging businesses to position inventory closer to customers through regional distribution networks.

As additional warehouse developments come to market, overall availability is improving, but well-located, technology-enabled facilities continue to command premium occupancy costs. Demand for flexible warehousing and value-added logistics services is therefore expected to remain strong throughout the second half of 2026.

Summary:

•  UK warehouse take-up increased 30% Q1/26.
• National vacancy has tightened to 7%.
• 3PL providers accounted for 38% of new occupier demand.
• Prime warehouse rents are rising around 3% YoY.

Across all modes and regions, market conditions continue to evolve rapidly, creating both challenges and opportunities. Whether you're reviewing transport options, securing capacity or strengthening resilience, Logicall's logistics specialists can help you make informed decisions based on the latest market intelligence.

Contact our team to learn how we can help you identify opportunities to streamline operations, improve customer service and reduce total supply chain costs, while ensuring your logistics network is fit to drive future growth.