Global freight market report – May 2026
Freight markets are entering a period of concentrated pressure. Peak season demand is arriving earlier than usual, carrier surcharges are stacking across all major modes, and the fuel cost environment remains volatile.
Across ocean and air, the trend is clear: demand is running ahead of usable capacity.
Blank sailings, rerouting, and equipment imbalances are reducing effective supply even as vessel numbers and airline schedules look adequate on paper. The gap between headline capacity and what is actually available to shippers is widening. The Drewry World Container Index rose for a fourth consecutive week at the end of May — a 14% increase in less than a month.
On land, European road freight conditions are tightening as summer volumes build and fuel-linked cost pressure continues flowing through to contract and spot rates. EU diesel prices rose 26% between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruption and sustained oil market volatility. Warehousing and contract logistics demand remains firm, driven by inventory building, supply chain diversification, and sustained e-commerce activity
Economic signals are mixed. UK manufacturing PMI moved back into modest expansion territory in May, providing some support for export demand, while Europe-wide conditions remain uneven. Geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, continues to define cost and capacity conditions across all transport modes.
Ocean freight
Asia–Europe and transpacific ocean markets are experiencing a significant demand surge, with volumes growing strongly in recent weeks as shippers accelerate shipments ahead of revised surcharges taking effect on 1 July. Carriers have imposed General Rate Increases (GRIs) across Asia–Europe trades since 1 June, with Peak Season Surcharges and Emergency Bunker Surcharges layering additional costs on top of a higher base rate. Space on key sailings is tightening rapidly, and shippers booking late are finding fewer options at viable rates.
Schedule reliability has improved modestly as voyages lengthen and carriers adjust networks, but effective capacity remains constrained. Most operators continue routing via the Cape of Good Hope, with selective Suez returns limited to specific services. The full network normalisation that would ease capacity conditions materially remains a 2027 story at the earliest. Blank sailings continue to be used as a capacity management tool, particularly on weeks where demand surges create imbalances.
The rate outlook for the remainder of June and into July points firmly upward. Demand is strong, usable space is tightening in the second half of June, and carriers are showing no hesitation in applying additional surcharge layers as market conditions allow.
Summary:
- Asia–Europe volumes have increased significantly since mid-May; Shanghai–Rotterdam rates jumped 15% in a single week
- Carriers imposed GRIs from 1 June across east–west trades
- Peak Season Surcharges now up to $2,000 per 40ft on transpacific eastbound
- Brent Crude trading near $90–91 per barrel, sustaining fuel cost pressure
Air freight
Air freight markets remain under structural pressure despite some easing from the acute capacity shock that followed the initial escalation of the Middle East conflict. Gulf airspace disruption continues to affect capacity availability and routing efficiency, and jet fuel costs remain elevated well above historical norms. Sustaining high operating costs and rate pressure across all major trade corridors.
Global air cargo demand has moderated slightly after strong growth earlier in 2026, when CTK volumes rose 11.2% year on year, but structural drivers continue supporting overall market resilience. Sustained e-commerce shipment volumes, tech hardware and component flows, and ocean-to-air conversions are sustaining utilisation on key lanes. China–Europe and China–US demand remains particularly active.
Capacity recovery is progressing, but unevenly. Alternative routings through Turkey and Central Asia have absorbed some of the displaced Gulf capacity, though lead times on several Asia–Europe corridors remain longer than pre-conflict norms. Rates remain significantly above year-ago levels, with further softening conditional on fuel costs easing and Gulf airspace progressively reopening, neither of which appears imminent.
Summary:
- Gulf capacity remains significantly below pre-conflict levels
- Spot rates continue to trade well above year-on-year comparisons
- China–US and China–Europe demand remains resilient
- Rate recovery dependent on fuel costs and Gulf airspace resolution
Road freight
European road freight markets are operating under cost-led pressure rather than a demand-driven surge. EU diesel prices rose 26% between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, with German diesel up 35% and French diesel up 27% in that same period — increases that operators cannot absorb without passing through to customers. UK and European cross-border corridors are seeing continued contract rate strengthening, with strong expectations of further rate increases ahead. Driver availability remains a structural constraint that limits the market's ability to absorb demand increases quickly.
Manufacturing conditions across key European economies have shown modest improvement, supporting industrial freight volumes on Germany-linked and north–south corridors. Technology, pharmaceutical, and data centre-related freight continue to generate above-average demand on select lanes. UK–EU customs procedures remain stable, though documentation volumes are adding process time at busy crossings.
Near-term road market conditions are expected to remain firm, with fuel costs providing the primary upward driver for rates through summer and into Q3 2026.
Summary:
- Diesel price increases continuing to drive contract and spot rate pressure
- UK–Europe contract rates trending higher year-on-year
- Driver availability remains a structural constraint across EU markets
- Further rate pressure expected through Q3 2026
Road freight
Demand for warehousing and contract logistics services across the UK and Europe remains firm, sustained by inventory building, supply chain nearshoring, and the continued growth of e-commerce fulfilment. Businesses are maintaining higher stock levels as a hedge against ongoing supply chain uncertainty, particularly disruption risk linked to the Middle East and this is translating into sustained occupancy and longer-term commitment to warehouse capacity. UK logistics leasing volumes increased 22% year on year in 2025, and CBRE forecasts occupier demand to remain consistent into 2026.
The UK logistics vacancy rate stood at 7% at the start of the year, driven primarily by rising second-hand availability rather than a weakening of demand, with the vacancy rate expected to fall as net absorption matches completions through 2026. The market for high-quality, well-located facilities remains competitive, with Grade A availability tightest in core distribution corridors including the Midlands, the Netherlands, and the Rhine–Ruhr. Labour and energy costs remain elevated but are showing early signs of stabilisation. Specialist sectors including cold chain, healthcare, and technology logistics continue to grow at above-market rates, reflecting the broader structural shift in UK and European supply chain design.
Providers with integrated capability, combining warehousing, customs management, transport, and digital visibility, are capturing the majority of new contract activity as businesses move away from disaggregated supply chain models.
Summary:
- Inventory building sustaining warehousing demand across UK and Europe
- Cold chain, healthcare, and technology logistics growing above the market average
- Labour and energy costs stabilising, though still elevated
- Demand for integrated, technology-enabled logistics solutions continues to strengthen
In a market shaped by front-loaded demand, stacking surcharges, and sustained fuel cost pressure, the businesses that plan ahead will outperform those that react.
Logicall combines real-time market intelligence with hands-on freight expertise across ocean, air, road, and contract logistics, giving you the insight and the capacity to stay ahead of the market.
Speak to Logicall today to protect your shipments, control costs, and build resilience into your supply chain for the second half of 2026.