Global freight market report – November
The global economy heads into 2026 with a cautious outlook shaped by complex policy shifts, trade dependencies, and ongoing uncertainties.
Advanced economies are projected to expand by just 1.6% as growth slows in the US and persistent tensions affect cross-continental trade. Meanwhile, Western Europe faces continued headwinds, with expected growth remaining subdued at 1.2%. Uncertainty, trade frictions, and fragile investment continue to limit confidence in the region’s recovery.
Across Europe, the outlook is mixed, with Türkiye’s stronger growth balancing regional volatility. Overall, the outlook is uncertain, with each region’s fortunes woven by shifting trade flows, policy resets, and evolving market conditions.
Ocean Freight
Asia–Europe and Mediterranean lanes strengthened from early October into late November, with freight-all-kinds (FAK) levels raised at roughly fortnightly intervals, pushing spot freight prices sharply higher and signalling a firmer market as tender season begins.
Transpacific services weakened more noticeably, with West Coast rates moderating by late November, indicating selective recovery dependent on shipper confidence and inventory restocking rather than organic demand growth. Despite seasonal cargo surges and pre-tariff front-loading on transpacific trades, market sentiment remains cautious, with limited visibility beyond Lunar New Year 2026.
Vessel deliveries remain high, pushing total global capacity to 9.7 million TEU, equivalent to 30% of the active fleet, and continuing to outpace demand.
• Asia-Europe General Rate Increases provided temporary relief before 2026 contracting discussions.
• Belgium’s three-day national strike in November will disrupt freight through Antwerp Rotterdam and Hamburg, worsening congestion and cascading into upstream disruption.
• Schedule reliability stabilised near 65–68% across major alliances, marking the strongest consistency since pre-pandemic operations.
• The 12-month U.S.–China tariff and port fee suspensions reduce tail risk for transpacific services.
Air Freight
Global air cargo demand expanded modestly through November 2025, with year-on-year volumes rising 3–4% according to IATA. However, this headline growth masks sharp regional divergence and mounting structural pressures.
Asia–Europe corridors emerged as the clear performer, with growth in double digits (12% YoY driven by eCommerce, electronics, and automotive components. Conversely, transpacific volumes weakened, declining 3.5% as tariff uncertainty deterred shippers and carriers reallocated freighter capacity away from the Americas.
WorldACD data show average worldwide spot rates rising 4% in week 43, with double-digit gains on China–U.S. and Korea–U.S. routes. From Asia to Europe, pricing increased more gradually (2%) reaching its highest level since June. The global average stood near 5% above September levels but still 4–6% lower year on year.
• Asia–Europe routes continue to anchor global growth, supported by sustained eCommerce momentum and high-value electronics exports from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia.
• Freighter scarcity and extended aircraft delivery delays are sustaining pricing power on premium services.
• Tariff-driven sourcing shifts are redirecting cargo flows toward emerging Asian suppliers, creating new demand nodes and route optimisation opportunities.
• Rising jet fuel costs and higher operating expenses continue to compress carrier margins even as belly-hold capacity expands.
Road Freight
The road freight sector remains locked in a state of constrained equilibrium. Spot and contract rate indices converged near parity in autumn 2025, signalling balanced supply and demand dynamics, with limited upside for carrier yields.
The Upply–Ti–IRU index showed minimal month-on-month volatility, while UK-specific haulage indices edged down around 2% in October, leaving year-on-year changes close to zero. This apparent stability masks deeper structural strain: fuel, insurance, and labour costs continue to inflate operating expenses faster than rate recovery.
On the demand side, cautious signals emerged from Q3 and into Q4 2025. Manufacturing-related traffic lifted modestly as inventory restocking gained momentum, but consumer-facing retail and distribution activity remained subdued in many markets.
• Driver wage inflation averaged 4.5% year-on-year across European markets, with acute retention challenges and higher recruitment costs.
• Diesel prices provided brief relief in early 2025 but truck maintenance costs rose over 2%.
• Manufacturing restocking is boosting the spot market, while retail and consumer-goods flows remain soft.
• The continental road freight segment is the fastest-growing, expanding 4% YoY through cross-border EU trade.
UK Contract Logistics
Growth of the UK’s contract logistics sector is forecast to exceed 3% CAGR over the next five years, as it absorbs e-commerce acceleration, supply chain optimisation, and digital transformation.
As companies pursue greater flexibility to handle demand fluctuations, contract logistics providers are tailoring solutions for industry-specific requirements, especially in retail, manufacturing and pharma.
End-to-end visibility and cost optimisation remain top priorities, with the sector leveraging data to refine route planning and inventory management. Rising demand for refrigerated transportation and robust returns-processing capabilities further position the UK as an e-commerce logistics leader in Europe.
• E-commerce is a major demand driver due to the rise in online shopping and reverse logistics operations.
• Advanced tech adoption is growing (AI, IoT, blockchain) for greater efficiency and resilience.
• Regulatory changes and government incentives continue to foster market innovation and investment.
• Green and sustainable logistics solutions are in rising demand due to ESG policies and stricter audits.
Warehousing
The UK warehousing sector is continuing its steady growth, and is expected to continue expanding at an average compound rate exceeding 2% through 2030. Urban land scarcity around major cities and ongoing labour shortages are drivers on rent and wages, prompting faster adoption of robotics, modular designs, and energy-efficient buildings.
England remains the central hub, accounting for 74% of occupied warehouse space, led by the “Golden Triangle” (M1, M6, M42), while Scotland is seeing the fastest growth rates thanks to renewable-energy incentives. Demand for omnichannel fulfilment hubs, temperature-controlled storage and government free-port incentives will reinforce pipeline development.
• E-commerce & retail account for 24% of revenue, pharma/healthcare is the fastest growing end-user, compounded at 5%.
• General warehousing & storage hold 58% market share; refrigerated is advancing at a 5% CAGR, ahead of segment average.
• The chronic vacancy rate for warehouse operatives is driving automation, with reported productivity uplifts reaching 50%.
• Twelve UK free-ports now offer streamlined customs and incentives attracting international logistics investment.
Logicall is committed to supporting clients overcome supply chain challenges and volatility with confidence. Our data-driven, proactive approach leverages integrated digital solutions, supply chain visibility, and robust sector expertise.
Whether adapting to shifting rates, managing compliance challenges, or scaling operations to meet new sustainability targets, Logicall partners with customers to build resilient, future-ready logistics networks tailored to their market realities.