Global freight market report – September

Global trade conditions in September remain volatile, with markets reacting to ongoing tariff uncertainty and uneven recovery across regions.

While the US and China continue their tariff truce, ocean carriers are grappling with oversupply and shifting demand patterns, tested further by energy cost pressures. Positive sentiment persists in certain consumer sectors, buoyed by stable inflation and improved supply chain efficiency.

The IMF continues to project 3% global GDP growth this year and 3.1% for 2026, placing the UK among the top-performing advanced economies. Confidence in procurement and logistics is bolstered by proactive capacity management and new investment in sustainable infrastructure, but exposure to rate volatility and regulatory changes remains high.

Ocean Freight

Container shipping remains unsettled by tariff dynamics and surplus capacity, particularly on Asia–Europe routes. While Transpacific lanes have proven more stable, carriers are increasingly reliant on blank sailings to cope with uneven demand and delivery timelines. The prevalence of large new vessels has intensified utilisation pressures, with regional divergence in performance now pronounced.

Global indices have dropped for thirteen weeks, reflecting broad market weakness. Asia–Europe demand waned ahead of Golden Week, with front-loading activity unable to offset slack volumes. US tariffs, now averaging 18% with surcharges up to 40%, and ongoing China duties have forced fleet redeployments, while effective supply is further cut by congestion.

• Spot rates into US West Coast up 6%, East Coast up 2% month-on-month
• Asia–Europe rates fell in recent weeks under oversupply pressure
• Schedule reliability dropped 2.2 points MoM, still 13 points above last year
• Nominal fleet growth at 7% YoY, effective supply cut 20% due to diversions and congestion

Air Freight

Air cargo continues to navigate a shifting environment, shaped by tariffs, changing trade flows, and seasonal demand. Asian and Indian corridors are holding strong, supported by eCommerce and exports, while North America shows signs of softening. Policy changes, including removal of de minimis exemptions, are also reshaping routing and sourcing decisions.

Global air volumes rose 3% YoY in August, while capacity matched with a 4% YoY gain, pushing load factors to 56%. Regional divergence is clear: China/Hong Kong–USA volumes dipped 5%, Europe-bound shipments from Asia rose 11%, and India–Europe flows remain elevated—especially for pharmaceuticals and apparel.

• Global demand up 3.5% YTD, Asia Pacific up 7% YoY in July
• Japan–Europe rates down 10% MoM, China–Europe down 3%, Korea up 5%
• Transatlantic demand rose 5% YoY in July, with flat rates due to excess capacity
• Global spot rates fell 3% YoY in August; fourth consecutive monthly decline

Road Freight

The European road freight market outlook remains mixed, weighed down by cautious consumer sentiment and slow industrial recovery. Recent stabilisation in input costs is set against tightening regulatory compliance and fleet renewal, with Q4 seasonal activity providing some optimism for improved volumes. Contract activity is resilient, but spot rates reflect ongoing softness.

Truck registrations fell by over 15% YoY, highlighting future capacity concerns. Diesel prices fell 6.4% in early Q2 only to rebound over summer; maintenance and wage costs also up. New protocols for dangerous goods, alongside stricter tachograph rules, complicate small operator compliance, with broader market conditions still fragile.

• EU truck registrations down 15% YoY, fleet renewal remains challenged
• TEG Index up 2.3 points in August; Haulage Index up 2.5%, 3.6% YoY
• Spot index down 2.0 points YoY, lowest rates since Q4 2023
• Eurozone PMI 49.8, strongest since August 2022, pointing to slow recovery

Contract logistics

The UK contract logistics sector is expanding, powered by eCommerce, digital transformation, and rising sustainability standards. Demand for advanced warehousing, value-added services, and tech-enabled fulfilment is growing fast, reshaping business models and investment priorities. Persistent cost pressures are offset by automation and higher asset investment.

Prime rents and wage growth both remain elevated; providers are responding with automation, robotics, and predictive analytics to maintain service quality. Contract structures increasingly coalesce around bundled logistics and digital platforms, while decarbonisation and traceability requirements reshape long-term relationships.

• 3.2% CAGR forecast for UK contract logistics to 2034
• 33% rise in occupier take-up; market value set to reach $134.4bn by 2034
• Prime rents up 2% in H1 2025; 26% above 2022 levels
• Asset investment up 27% YoY, supporting technology upgrades

Warehousing

Warehousing markets remain robust, underpinned by consolidation, automation, and demand for ESG-compliant assets. Europe is the most expensive region, with labour and rents over 25% above 2022 levels, while North America and Asia Pacific enjoy greater cost predictability. Operators are prioritising digital platforms and resilient, strategically located facilities.

Consolidation is accelerating, and the Ti Warehouse Tracker notes sustained cost divergence: Europe’s operating cost index at 119.5, North America at 110.9, and Asia Pacific at 111.0, with labour considered the dominant price driver. Competitive pressures are pushing shippers to pay premiums for flexible, tech-enabled space.

• Europe Prime Rents Index +26% vs 2022; North America +23% vs 2022
• Labour index in Europe at 126, 25% above 2022 benchmark
• Energy cost index +10% vs 2022, with volatility still evident
• Asia Pacific rates stable, region offers most predictable cost trajectory

Logicall provides data-driven, proactive support for freight, logistics, and warehousing. Our team helps build resilient, tech-enabled supply chains. Contact us for tailored advice addressing the trends and challenges outlined in this report.