Global Trade Growth Continues in 2026
Global trade is expected to remain resilient through 2026, even as geopolitical uncertainty, cost pressure and regulatory complexity persist.
According to the Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026, 94% of 3,500 global supply-chain leaders expect global trade volumes to match or exceed 2025 levels, underlining confidence in demand despite an increasingly challenging operating environment.
For shippers, the key takeaway is not simply that trade will grow, but that how supply chains are structured, routed and managed is changing rapidly.
Air and ocean freight: Volatility is now structural
The report highlights that 46% of respondents expect to enter new markets, while 26% intend to use new or alternative trade routes in 2026, driven by a combination of cost pressure, disruption risk and the need for greater flexibility in sourcing and geographic sales. This reflects a broader shift away from rigid, single-lane strategies toward multi-modal, multi-route networks.
Air freight continues to play a critical role for time-sensitive, high-value and disruption-recovery shipments, while ocean freight remains the backbone of global trade. However, both modes are increasingly shaped by:
• Capacity management and schedule variability
• Route diversification and changing port pairings
• Tighter coordination between international transport and inland distribution
As a result, shippers are placing greater emphasis on execution quality, visibility and integration between modes, rather than purely headline freight rates.
Warehousing and logistics move to the centre
One of the clearest structural shifts identified in the report is inventory strategy. 44% of executives plan to hold higher inventory levels, deliberately trading working capital for resilience and service reliability.
This change is driving renewed focus on:
• Warehousing location and scalability
• Faster throughput and flexible storage models
• Closer alignment between inbound freight, storage and outbound fulfilment
The report also ranks warehousing and logistics as the top global operational priority, reinforcing the idea that storage is no longer a passive action but an active supply-chain control point.
Customs and borders remain the weakest link
Despite strong trade confidence, 60% of the executives surveyed identified customs processes as the single largest cause of disruption. Border delays, documentation complexity and inconsistent clearance performance are extending dwell times and increasing pressure on inland logistics and storage networks.
For shippers, this is reinforcing the need for:
• Tighter coordination between freight, customs and warehousing
• Better visibility of clearance status and dwell risk
• Operating models that reduce hand-offs and fragmentation
The report makes clear that border performance now has a direct impact on inventory efficiency, cost and service levels, not just transit times.
Technology improves visibility — but execution still wins
Digital tools, automation and AI are adopted by 95% of executives across global supply chains, but the report notes that their greatest value today lies in visibility, reliability and decision support, rather than immediate cost reduction.
While AI is expected to become transformational over the next five to eight years, current performance still depends heavily on:
• Physical infrastructure and network design
• Operational coordination across transport and storage
• The ability to act quickly when disruption occurs
In other words, technology enables better decisions — but outcomes are still defined by execution.
What this means for shippers
The Global Trade Observatory’s findings point to a consistent conclusion: trade growth in 2026 will reward supply chains designed to operate under friction. Shippers that align air and ocean freight, warehousing, customs and inland logistics into a coherent operating model will be better positioned to absorb volatility, manage cost and protect service.
By combining global freight, customs, warehousing and advanced supply-chain orchestration, Logicall helps shippers transform growth opportunities into reliable outcomes, turning volatility into advantage rather than risk.