Local airfreight conditions matter most
Global airfreight demand remains above last year’s levels, but headline market figures are becoming less useful for shippers making real booking decisions. Capacity, pricing and reliability are increasingly determined by what is happening at individual origin gateways, on specific trade lanes and within particular cargo sectors.
For businesses importing into Europe, the practical implication is clear. An apparently balanced Asia–Europe market does not guarantee space, stable rates or reliable uplift from a particular airport. Changes in me minimis regulations, technology-sector demand, weather disruption and carrier capacity allocation can create sharply different conditions from one origin to the next.
The latest data from WorldACD illustrates this divergence. Global tonnage fell by 4% in the latest reporting week but remained 1% higher year on year. Behind that overall figure, however, individual Asian origins recorded movements ranging from double-digit growth to double-digit decline.
Asia–Europe recalibrates after e-commerce changes
Asia–Europe airfreight is adjusting following changes to the EU treatment of low-value e-commerce shipments.
The introduction of a €3 charge on packages valued below €150 at the start of July has affected one of air cargo’s most important recent growth drivers. By week 32, China–Europe e-commerce volumes were 8% lower year on year, while Hong Kong–Europe volumes were down by almost 30%.
Overall Asia Pacific–Europe tonnage declined, yet spot rates moved in the opposite direction on several important lanes. Asia Pacific–Europe pricing rose 1%, led by a 6% increase from China and a 3% increase from Hong Kong.
This apparent contradiction reflects the way available capacity is being redeployed. Freighter capacity previously serving e-commerce flows appears to be moving between markets, enabling pricing to strengthen even while overall volumes soften.
Weather is adding further uncertainty. Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations in Shanghai, contributing to an 8% week-on-week fall in total air cargo from the gateway. Disruption at Chinese seaports could also trigger a later shift from ocean to air as businesses seek to recover delayed shipments.
For importers, a regional average can suggest that capacity is readily available while individual origins are experiencing a very different reality. Effective airfreight planning now requires an origin-level understanding of cargo mix, airline capacity, local disruption and viable alternatives.
Technology cargo tightens selected transpacific origins
The transpacific market shows the same pattern of localised pressure. Asia Pacific–US tonnage declined 4% week on week in early August and spot rates fell 3%, pointing to relative balance at a regional level. Yet conditions varied substantially by origin.
Japan–US volumes increased 12% in a single week, while Taiwan and Indonesia saw volumes decline by around 10%. High-value technology cargo from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam continues to support demand.
AI servers, semiconductors, electronics and data-centre infrastructure are especially influential because they are high-value, time-sensitive and often linked to fixed deployment schedules. Airfreight remains the preferred option for many of these shipments, even when ocean capacity is technically available.
That demand can affect businesses outside the technology sector. Freight moving through the same airports, competing for the same freighter space or booking uplift during concentrated manufacturing periods may face tighter availability and firmer pricing.
As Q4 approaches, shippers should assess what else is moving from their origin, identify alternative airports or routings and discuss capacity requirements early. Further typhoon activity across Asia could intensify pressure where airport disruption coincides with technology-export peaks.
Transatlantic capacity remains relatively open
The transatlantic market currently offers a more stable environment, supported by the substantial belly-hold capacity available under summer passenger schedules.
WorldACD data shows North America–Europe volumes declined 5% over the latest two-week comparison, while European exports to North America rose 3%. Conditions therefore vary by direction, rather than following a single transatlantic trend.
This availability may present an opportunity for shippers with flexible timing and routing requirements. However, capacity could tighten as passenger airlines move from summer to winter schedules and available belly-hold space reduces.
Build flexibility into airfreight planning
Airfreight is no longer a market where a single global trend can reliably describe conditions everywhere. Regulation is reshaping e-commerce demand, technology is concentrating demand at particular Asian origins, weather can remove capacity with little warning and passenger schedules continue to influence individual corridors.
Shippers can reduce exposure by:
• Separating genuinely urgent freight from cargo that can move with more flexible transit times.
• Booking earlier from constrained origins and during peak-production periods.
• Maintaining alternative airport, carrier and routing options.
• Reviewing where air, ocean, road and rail solutions can be combined to protect delivery commitments.
Logicall helps businesses manage changing inbound flows into Europe with adaptive airfreight corridors, supply-chain visibility and flexible distribution solutions. Our teams can help you assess origin-level capacity, select practical routing options and connect international freight movements with reliable European delivery.
Speak to Logicall about building a more resilient airfreight and European distribution strategy