Middle East air freight corridors stabilise, but pricing and capacity pressures remain elevated
Air freight activity across the Middle East is gradually recovering as regional carriers restore capacity and more airspace reopens, although elevated fuel costs, restricted routings and operational disruption continue to place significant pressure on the market.
Recent weeks have seen improving connectivity through major Gulf hubs including Dubai, Doha, Bahrain and Kuwait, with airlines progressively rebuilding schedules and reinstating cargo services linking Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Additional contingency operations through Riyadh and Muscat also continue to support regional cargo flows while carriers maintain flexible network deployment.
The Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region was the only global origin market to record week-on-week tonnage growth in week 18, with chargeable weight increasing by 2%. Year on year, MESA traffic was up 4%, reflecting the continued recovery in Gulf carrier operations following the severe disruption seen earlier this year.
Capacity is also beginning to return, with data showing a continued recovery in the schedules of Gulf carriers Emirates and Etihad, while Qatar Airways has reportedly added around 4,000 tonnes of additional lift. Belly-hold capacity out of Dubai increased by almost 10%, while overall MESA traffic rose 7% year on year in April, underlining the scale of operational rebuilding now taking place across the region.
Fuel costs and volatility continue to distort the market
However, market conditions remain highly volatile and significantly more expensive than pre-crisis levels. Aviation fuel prices have nearly doubled since late February, forcing airlines globally to reduce freighter deployment, cancel unprofitable routes and maintain elevated fuel surcharges.
Although some surcharges have started to soften slightly, pricing across Middle East corridors remains exceptionally high. Average spot rate indice figures show rates from MESA to Europe were still 63% higher year on year in week 18, while pricing to the US was also up over 60%.
Operational constraints also continue to affect traffic flows. Week-on-week cargo volumes from Dubai to Europe fell 13%, while traffic from Dubai to the US dropped 20%, illustrating the ongoing instability across key Gulf corridors despite broader recovery trends.
The disruption is also reshaping global routing patterns, with some carriers using alternative transit points in India in place of Dubai on selected Europe-Asia freighter services, while contingency routings and selective airspace approvals remain common across parts of the Gulf region.
Outlook remains fragile
Despite signs of stabilisation, renewed hostilities in early May again triggered short-notice airspace closures, reroutings and flight cancellations, underlining the fragility of the recovery. Shippers should continue to plan for extended delays, reduced space availability and fluctuating schedules across Middle East corridors.
Even if regional conditions continue to improve, the market is expected to remain structurally volatile for some time. Elevated jet fuel pricing, constrained refinery output and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are likely to sustain pressure on air freight rates, surcharge mechanisms and network reliability well beyond the immediate crisis period.
Logicall supports customers through these challenging conditions with flexible air freight planning, proactive routing strategies and close monitoring of market changes.
When fuel-driven disruption is distorting both cost and capacity, the priority is no longer simply securing space, but securing the right routing at the right time, with the flexibility to respond as rates, surcharges and available lift continue to shift.