Navigating global freight challenges in 2025

With air, sea, and road freight markets poised for growth, businesses must balance opportunities with constraints to maintain efficiency and resilience. Geopolitical uncertainties, shifting trade policies, and capacity constraints further complicate the outlook, requiring businesses to adapt swiftly to maintain efficiency and resilience. Here's what you need to know to navigate through several global freight challenges in 2025.

Air freight: robust demand, persistent constraints

The air freight market continues to thrive, driven by surging eCommerce demand from Asia and the seasonal peak in global trade. Air cargo volumes are projected to increase by 5.8% year-on-year, reaching 72.5 million tonnes. However, capacity remains a key challenge, with limited wide-body freighters and reduced belly cargo options restricting growth.

Carriers are responding to these pressures by adjusting rates and expanding dedicated services on selected routes, reflecting confidence in market strength. However, ongoing geopolitical factors, such as the Red Sea crisis and potential US tariff changes, could disrupt trade flows. Any amendments to the US ‘de minimis’ thresholds may further impact eCommerce shipments, adding uncertainty to the sector.

Despite these headwinds, the air freight market remains highly competitive. Rates are expected to stay elevated in 2025 as demand outpaces supply, creating opportunities for carriers while posing challenges for shippers.

Sea freight: balancing stability and volatility

The sea freight market presents a mixed outlook, with stabilised rates and moderate demand growth of 3-4% forecasted. Freight rates remain above pre-pandemic levels, supported by successful general rate increases (GRIs) and strong demand leading up to the Chinese New Year.

However, the market faces seasonal adjustments, with demand expected to soften after January. New alliance networks set to launch in February and March may create additional capacity, offering opportunities for shippers while posing risks of overcapacity and congestion.

Geopolitical tensions, including potential US tariffs and ongoing Red Sea disruptions, add further complexity. Vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope have temporarily absorbed capacity, but a return to normal operations through the Suez canal could intensify supply-demand imbalances.

With carriers set to phase in new networks in Q1, market analysts believe that further changes to accommodate Suez transits are unlikely to occur before August. This transitional phase could temporarily worsen congestion and delays. However, once stabilised, the market would benefit from restored transit times and reduced rates.

Road freight: steady growth, mounting challenges

The European road freight sector is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2025, building on a 1% increase in 2024. Domestic markets remain resilient, supported by improved consumer spending and cooling inflation.

However, the sector faces significant pressures, including worsening driver shortages, which could leave unfilled positions exceeding 60% by 2026. Rising operational costs and geopolitical uncertainties also add to the challenges, requiring operators to adapt quickly to maintain efficiency.

Preparing for global freight challenges in 2025

The global freight market in 2025 will demand agility and strategic planning to navigate the complexities of air, sea, and road logistics. Shippers must anticipate disruptions, adjust to evolving conditions, and seize opportunities to stay ahead of the curve.

Logicall is here to help you overcome these challenges with tailored solutions designed to streamline your supply chain and maximise growth opportunities. From addressing air freight capacity constraints and navigating sea freight volatility to mitigating road freight pressures, our expert teams across the EU, UK, and Asia are ready to support your success.