New vessel deliveries reshape container shipping

Container shipping faces a prolonged period of imbalance, with vessel deliveries consistently outstripping trade growth and demand through the rest of the decade.

While global demand throughput is expected to grow 2.6% in 2025, aided by fiscal stimulus, lower effective tariff rates, and front-loading of cargo, demand growth will slow sharply in 2026 and remain below 2.5% in the years that follow. By contrast, fleet growth is locked in at much higher levels: 6.7% in 2025, dipping only briefly to 3.9% in 2026, before rising to more than 7% in 2028. This reflects record vessel orders, with more than 9.6 million TEU currently on the books - equivalent to more than 30% of the active fleet. By mid-2025, global carriers had ordered 2.3 million TEU of new capacity, only slightly below the record levels set in late 2024. Average fleet growth is forecast to remain above 6% per year between 2025 and 2028, with a peak of more than 7% in 2028, an imbalance that analysts expect to persist until at least 2029.

Record vessel orders lock in long-term oversupply

Meanwhile, scrapping activity is at historic lows, with older ships retained to capture strong charter returns and oversupply projected to average reach 27% through 2028, with 18% forecast this year and 19% in 2026. By mid-2025, global carriers had ordered 2.3 million TEU of new capacity, only slightly below the record levels set in late 2024. The current order-book now totals 9.6 million TEU, equivalent to more than 30% of the active fleet. With 3.3 million TEU scheduled for delivery in 2028 alone, average fleet growth is forecast to remain above 6% per year between 2025 and 2028, with a peak of more than 7% in 2028. This imbalance locks in an oversupply that analysts expect to persist until at least 2029.

Carrier strategies to absorb excess capacity

Carriers have a limited set of tools to manage this challenge. Blank sailings, slower steaming, idling vessels, and accelerated demolition will be used to absorb surplus tonnage. Service reconfigurations, port rotation changes, and opportunistic surcharges are also likely as lines attempt to defend yields. Mergers and acquisitions could further consolidate supply, but the fundamental imbalance will remain.

Suez canal reopening adds further market disruption

The situation will be complicated further when Red Sea diversions come to an end. The reopening of the Suez Canal will restore shorter routes, reduce transit times, and release significant capacity back into the market just as the largest delivery wave arrives. This could trigger congestion at European ports, container equipment shortages in Asia, and sharp downward pressure on freight rates. Analysts suggest carriers may pursue a phased return to the Suez to mitigate these risks, but operational disruption is still expected.

For UK and European importers and exporters, the implications are clear. Lower freight rates may seem attractive, but reliability and schedule consistency will remain uncertain. The ability to anticipate and respond to carrier adjustments will be vital to securing stable supply chains.