Ocean freight price and capacity volatility
As Chinese New Year approaches, ocean freight markets are entering a familiar but increasingly complex phase. What was once a relatively predictable seasonal slowdown has evolved into a period of heightened volatility, shaped by strong late-cycle demand, aggressive pricing action and the growing use of blanked sailings as a capacity-management tool.
With carriers reporting solid booking levels through December and into January, and expectations that demand could remain firm into February, the traditional pre-CNY rush is already underway. Chinese New Year officially begins on 17 February, with the public holiday in China running from 15 to 23 February, but its impact on supply chains is felt weeks earlier as factories wind down production and export volumes are pulled forward.
Demand strength supports peak season pricing
Continuing strong demand has given carriers confidence to push through a new round of peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight all kinds (FAK) rates at the start of the year.
Early bookings ahead of the Lunar New Year are already being recorded, prompting expectations of further modest rate increases in the near term. This is reflected in market benchmarks: ahead of Christmas, Drewry’s World Container Index showed spot rates on Shanghai–Genoa rising 10% and Shanghai–Rotterdam climbing 8%, marking a third consecutive week of gains.
Carriers have followed with targeted pricing actions:
• Maersk has announced a $1,500 per 40ft peak season surcharges (PSS) on all Asia–Mediterranean shipments from 5 January.
• On Asia–North Europe, CMA CGM has introduced a $250 per 20ft PSS, alongside a new FAK rate effective 1 January.
• From the same date, MSC set new FAK levels of $3,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean.
Underlying demand remain robust, with Asia–Europe volumes reaching 21.95m teu by the end of October, representing 8.6% year-on-year growth. This strength has encouraged carriers to hold pricing, but it has also prompted preparations for capacity withdrawal once CNY passes.
As factories begin to slow production, carriers are once again turning to blanked sailings to protect utilisation. Recent analysis from Sea-Intelligence shows a clear departure from the flatter capacity patterns seen in earlier years. Instead, carriers have front-loaded capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, before planning sharp withdrawals as the holiday approaches. This creates short windows of intense volume flow, followed by sudden capacity gaps — a combination that materially raises the risk of congestion, rolled cargo and missed cut-offs.
Key trade-lane impacts include:
Asia–North Europe
The largest expansion in absolute terms, with capacity projected to surge nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive front-loading to buffer European inventories ahead of CNY shutdowns.
Asia–Mediterranean
The biggest percentage increase, with peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened volatility on secondary trades as well as core lanes.
Asia–North America West Coast
A late-season capacity spike of around 30%, followed by a sharp withdrawal in the final weeks before CNY, leaving limited opportunity to rebook before factory closures.
Asia–North America East Coast
Capacity remains elevated throughout the pre-CNY window, peaking around 25% above baseline, before expected post-holiday adjustments.
This shift away from historically flat deployment toward high-impact, reactive capacity management means blank sailings now amplify disruption rather than simply smoothing seasonal demand.
Heading into CNY rates remain relatively steady, underpinned by strong demand, peak season surcharges and disciplined capacity control. However, once factories reopen and deferred cargo returns to the market, pricing is likely to become more volatile, particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn sailings.
For shippers, the risk is not confined to the holiday itself, but to the broader six- to eight-week window around it, when capacity, schedules and pricing are most fluid.
If you’re planning ocean freight through Chinese New Year and into 2026, Logicall’s teams can help you secure space, manage blank-sailing risk and adapt your shipping strategy, so you stay ahead of disruption, rather than reacting to it.