Trade Deals and Tensions Reshape Asia’s Air Freight Landscape
Air cargo flows from Asia to the US and Europe are undergoing a sharp reset as shifting production patterns, holiday disruptions, tariff volatility and new trade deals force a realignment in supply chains.
Following a brief surge in mid-May, air freight volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US dropped sharply in early June, falling by 10% week-on-week and close to 20% year-on-year. Spot rates declined similarly, down around 5% on the week and lower than the same period last year.
The May recovery had been driven by urgent shipments taking advantage of a temporary suspension of punishing tariffs imposed earlier in the year. With the suspension still in place, the latest downturn suggests the rebound was short-term, driven by backlogged cargo rather than structural demand.
The wider impact of falling China–US volumes contributed to a 3% drop in global tonnages during the same week. China–Europe trade was also affected, with volumes down 5% from China, though Hong Kong saw a modest 2% increase. Southeast Asia’s output fell 6%, impacted by Eid-related factory closures in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Vietnam Gains Momentum as Trade Deal Agreed with US
Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s role in the region’s air freight network has strengthened significantly. Laptop exports by air rose approximately 75% between February and April, driven by production shifts and sustained US demand. This spike equates to around 8,000 tonnes of additional cargo over two months, requiring an extra 1.5 wide-body freighter flights per day.
In contrast, China’s laptop air freight volumes collapsed over the same period, falling from 7,000 tonnes in January to around 2,500 tonnes by April. The shift reflects the impact of steep US tariffs introduced under emergency trade measures, which escalated to triple-digit rates before a partial 90-day rollback in May.
While many electronic goods, including laptops and smartphones, were eventually exempted from the highest tariff levels, the earlier disruption and removal of the de minimis exemption for eCommerce shipments accelerated the movement of sourcing away from China.
Vietnam’s position will be further strengthened by the announcement of a new trade deal with the US. Originally facing a punitive 46% tariff, Vietnam has now secured a reduced 20% levy on many exports, while US goods will receive tariff-free access to the Vietnamese market. A higher 40% tariff will apply to third-country trans-shipments routed through Vietnam, signalling US intent to crack down on “Made in Vietnam” labels applied to Chinese goods.
Though product-specific details remain unclear, the agreement has eased tensions ahead of the broader July 9 tariff implementation deadline and reinforces Vietnam’s role as a key trade partner for the US.
With spot pricing stabilising and some Southeast Asian markets resuming post-holiday operations, overall air freight capacity may begin to rebalance. However, production relocations, new trade barriers, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty mean that some volatility is likely to persist throughout Q3.
How we can help
As sourcing shifts and air cargo lanes evolve, Logicall is here to help you adapt with speed and confidence. Our air freight teams are active across Asia, and our local presence in Vietnam gives us the on-the-ground insight and capacity to provide fast, flexible, and cost-effective solutions into Europe and the US.
Whether you're diversifying supply chains, shifting production, or planning high-speed uplift into Europe or the US, we offer tailored solutions backed by expert local support.
If you have urgent queries or require assistance, please contact us for assistance.