Reshaping transpacific container shipping

While the transpacific eastbound container shipping route has long served as the ‘Cash Cow’ of container shipping lines, volatile U.S. trade policy is threatening to unravel the structures that have underpinned liner shipping for decades.

At the centre of the disruption is the reimplementation of sweeping tariffs by the Trump administration. Goods imported from China now face tariffs as high as 145%, with limited exceptions for high-value consumer electronics—products that are typically moved by air, not sea.

Short-term relief for non-Chinese exporters

Non-Chinese Asian exporters have been granted only a short window of relief: a 10% tariff applies until 9 July, after which “reciprocal” duties will take effect, with exporters racing to load cargo from alternative origins before the July deadline. However, given the scale of China’s presence in the transpacific trade any drop in Chinese exports will leave a sizeable hole in global container volumes.

This year’s tariff changes have landed during the crucial April contracting season, when forwarders and the biggest shippers finalise annual agreements with the carriers, defining volumes and freight rates. Yet this traditional model is now in serious jeopardy, with the potential of a monumental shift to the spot market.

With tariffs changing at pace and geopolitical risks high, forecasting demand on a country-by-country basis is next to impossible. Manufacturers are unsure where their factories will be operating in six months’ time, while carriers can no longer guarantee the structure of their service networks. The result could be paralysis in contract negotiations, and pressure to abandon them altogether.

Some industry analysts suggest that fallback agreements might emerge—contracts designed to activate only if policy stabilises—but these remain speculative. In practice, what’s happening now is a rush to clear existing orders, halt further Chinese shipments, and prioritise high-margin or exempted goods.

Spot market takes the lead

This chaotic environment is elevating the role of the spot market, which is quickly becoming the primary channel for freight pricing and space allocation. But here, too, uncertainty reigns. Freight rates are at the mercy of shifting trade patterns, capacity redeployments, and the looming impact of new policy proposals.

Perhaps the most significant of these proposals is the US Trade Representative’s suggested fee of $1.5 million per port call for vessels built in China. If enacted, this measure would strike at the heart of global fleet deployment. Even in a lower-volume environment, such a fee would render many port calls unviable, concentrating vessel calls at fewer US ports and exacerbating congestion.

An unpredictable new era for container shipping

This congestion, in turn, would likely spark another surge in spot rates—similar to what occurred during the pandemic. The combination of weak demand, disrupted supply chains, and sharply higher prices could cripple supply chain productivity. Blank sailings, cargo rollovers, and vessel reshuffling would become the norm, rather than the exception.

Container shipping operates most efficiently when vessels flow smoothly between ports and container move to inland destinations at a consistent pace. However, this efficiency depends on predictability, something now in short supply. The industry managed to absorb soaring costs during the COVID crisis because of strong demand. But in today’s environment, with demand far more fragile and costs again on the rise, the pressure may prove unsustainable.

It is clear that global container shipping is on an unpredictable new course and whether it emerges unharmed, or 2025 becomes the year the spot market emerged as the new foundation of ocean freight—will depend on how governments, carriers, and shippers fare in the next few months.

At Logicall, we understand the intense pressures global supply chains are facing. While the market remains volatile, our strategic transpacific carrier agreements and advanced spot market tools help shippers stay agile and in control.

Whether you're managing key trade lanes, exploring alternative routes, or planning ahead, our tailored sea freight solutions offer the stability and flexibility you need to stay ahead in 2025.

Get in touch today to find out how Logicall can strengthen your ocean supply chain and give you the confidence to move forward—whatever the market brings.