Silent stockpiles and front-loading blur freight outlook

Global supply chains are facing a double-edged challenge: the rush to front-load shipments ahead of US tariffs has drained much of the usual second-half demand, while hidden “silent stockpiles” are quietly clogging supply lines out of sight.

Together, these trends are suspending normal seasonal patterns and making it nearly impossible for ocean and air carriers to predict the months ahead.

Recent data shows Chinese exports jumped by almost 6% year on year, boosted by a tariff reprieve, but shipments to the US still declined by over 15%, softening the headline gains.

Carriers on both sea and air routes are now bracing for a downturn, as the early surge in orders, designed to avoid supply chain shocks, leaves little fuel for a traditional peak season.

Early peaks, soft landings

Ocean freight markets have seen aggressive stockpiling bring forward seasonal volumes, pushing up rates in the short term but setting the stage for steady declines into late 2025. Vessel supply continues to outstrip demand, and idle capacity is expected to increase.

Carriers are responding with blank sailings and reduced tonnage to hold rates, but space remains tight in the near term, especially on Far East–westbound and transpacific eastbound routes.

Yet this front-loaded momentum is already starting to fade. The transpacific is expected to see a smaller pre-holiday surge, while transatlantic westbound trades remain comparatively stable. In airfreight, rates have crept up on some corridors, notably transpacific eastbound, but the overall peak season is expected to be muted, possibly delayed to mid-Q4 when winter schedules reduce capacity.

The rise of hidden backlogs

Complicating the outlook is the emergence of “silent stockpiles” goods stalled in nearshore yards, warehouses, or freight depots that do not appear in official systems until they create sudden surges or bottlenecks. These hidden stockpiles are adding distortion to an already unpredictable market, with Southeast Asia seeing notable double-digit drops in outbound airfreight tonnages, reflecting mismatched supply and demand signals.

Instead of planning around consumer demand, many companies have been making decisions based on shifting capacity and trade policies. As a result, forecasting has become a short-term exercise, with planners re-forecasting repeatedly through the year rather than relying on static annual plans.

Uncertainty ahead

While some air and ocean carriers remain cautiously optimistic about late-year demand, others are less convinced any significant rebound will materialise. Current capacity increases on specific lanes, like Asia–Middle East or intra-North America, offer little clarity, and rates on major corridors such as China–Europe have stayed largely flat.

With traditional peak season signals suspended, the smartest shippers will be those able to flex their supply chains quickly in response to fast-changing conditions, not those relying on past patterns or rigid plans.

In this era of volatile demand, hidden inventory, and collapsing seasonal trends, businesses need a partner with the agility and supply chain management technology to pivot swiftly.

Logicall delivers integrated technology and multi-modal freight solutions to help you overcome uncertainty, optimise flows, and stay resilient.

Explore how we can support your supply chain.