Strong start to year for air freight but challenges lurk

Air cargo markets began 2026 with stronger volumes, with global demand rising 7% year on year in January, outpacing the 5% growth in available capacity and pushing utilisation slightly higher, with dynamic load factors reaching 57%.

In reality the early Lunar New Year distorted the comparison. Shipments were pulled forward into January before widespread factory shutdowns across China in mid-February, inflating the appearance of demand strength.

At the same time, the first year-on-year decline in Chinese e-commerce exports since January 2022 signals a more structural change developing beneath the seasonal uplift. China Customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports fell 9% year on year in December, while China-to-US e-commerce volumes dropped more than 50% for a third consecutive month and declined 28% across full-year 2025.

Cross-border e-commerce has accounted for roughly 20–25% of global air cargo demand since late 2023. However, regulatory pressure is now reducing volumes. The removal of US de minimis exemptions has driven a prolonged drop in China–US online retail flows, while additional regulatory measures in Europe and Asia are introducing new friction into the sector. Growth from China into Europe slowed to around 8% in December compared with 54% earlier in 2025.

As the market’s strongest growth driver weakens, future air cargo performance will rely more heavily on traditional industrial and time-critical shipments rather than retail parcel flows.

Regional flows volatile as capacity adjusts

Weekly data through early February showed global tonnages continuing to edge upward, rising 2% week on week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase following the year-end lull. North American volumes rebounded 8% week on week as winter weather disruptions eased, while Middle East and South Asia traffic increased 7%, including a 12% surge into the US.

Valentine’s Day flower exports from Colombia and Ecuador created a temporary spike, with shipments jumping 24% week on week before falling back once the seasonal peak passed — illustrating how short-term events are now dominating demand patterns.

Asia-Pacific volumes remained mixed. Shipments to the US rose from Japan (+11%), Hong Kong (+6%) and China (+2%), but declined from South Korea (-16%) and Vietnam (-10%). Into Europe, Taiwan volumes increased 6% for a fifth consecutive week and Vietnam rose 10%, while China remained broadly flat ahead of factory closures.

Rates stabilise but diverge by corridor

Pricing trends broadly mirror the uneven demand profile. Most major trade lanes recorded year-on-year declines in January, particularly from Southeast Asia to Europe and North America, as expanding capacity outpaced demand. Northeast Asia to Europe declined 6% year on year, while Northeast Asia to North America saw only a 3% drop due to active freighter capacity management.

Transatlantic westbound pricing moved in the opposite direction, rising 3% year on year despite a 4% decline in chargeable weight, reflecting shipper reaction to temporary tariff concerns and currency movements.

Entering February, rates edged upward week-to-week as Valentine’s Day shipments and pre-holiday flows moved through the system before easing again once Chinese New Year shutdowns began. Outbound Hong Kong rates were broadly stable year on year, while Shanghai increased 11% year on year. European export markets showed intermittent firmness, with Frankfurt rising 3.4% week on week and London Heathrow increasing 22% week on week on selected lanes.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a parcel-driven expansion cycle to a more traditional supply-demand balance, with capacity discipline and regional imbalances now driving short-term pricing more than sustained global growth.

With air cargo demand becoming less predictable and increasingly corridor-specific, shipment timing and routing decisions now have a greater impact on cost and reliability.

Logicall works with shippers to plan uplift windows, manage capacity options and select the right carrier strategy for each movement. If you would like to review your air freight planning for the coming quarter, speak with the Logicall team.