Transpacific freight shows signs of stabilisation
While Asia–Europe shipping lines continue to face sharp rate erosion, the pace of transpacific spot rate erosion has slowed, suggesting that the worst of the turbulence for carriers may soon ease.
Total US container volumes last month reached 2.609 million TEUs, the most ever recorded for a single month. After two months of steep declines, US imports from China rebounded in July, rising 36% TEUs. However, volumes were still 8% lower than a year earlier, showing the longer-term shift in sourcing away from China.
Regional shifts in global import growth
Southeast Asia was the main driver of growth. With several countries exempt from tariffs, imports from the region jumped 24% year on year. The Indian subcontinent also hit a record, with imports up 21% year on year, while imports from Southern Europe rose 7% and volumes from Northern Europe held steady.
Despite last month’s volumes, recent data from the major sea freight indices confirm another week of softening for transpacific spot rates. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) and Xeneta’s XSI all reported drops on transpacific lanes. West coast routes saw declines of around 3–5%, while east coast services recorded falls closer to 2–3%.
Asia–Europe lanes face steeper rate erosion
Asia–Europe carriers are facing even sharper falls despite steady demand and ongoing congestion at European ports. Average spot prices to North Europe have dropped by around half since January, with significant declines recorded over the past two months. Although the downward trajectory persists, the rate of transpacific decline has moderated compared with earlier in the summer.
Carrier responses and outlook for peak season
Carriers have responded with blank sailings and capacity reshuffling, seeking to bring supply back in line with softer demand. However, these measures provide only limited relief in a market weighed down by tariff uncertainty, shifting trade flows and the arrival of new vessel capacity.
Despite the falls, some industry watchers are still adamant on the possibility of a muted peak season later in the year. Any upturn would likely be modest and largely confined, which means it may be difficult for peak season surcharges to be applied. Others remain more cautious, pointing to the risk of fresh vessel deliveries deepening overcapacity and undermining any fragile price recovery.
Elsewhere, Asian export routes showed mixed trends. The SCFI reported a marginal increase on Asia–South Africa services, though this minor gain was overshadowed by Maersk confirming it will withdraw direct sailings to South Africa from October, rerouting volumes via European hubs. This shift is expected to increase costs and lengthen transit times, leaving MSC as the only carrier with direct connections and further challenging South Africa’s export competitiveness.
With transpacific freight rates showing signs of stabilisation but Asia–Europe routes still under pressure, navigating today’s shifting ocean freight market requires more than reacting to price movements. It demands proactive planning, continuous monitoring, and agile decision-making.